MDs Quitting, Nursing Shortages, U.S. Healthcare and ASIMO

Forward thinkers in Japan, who are concerned about a dwindling birth rate and an expanding elderly population, have embarked on a venture to develop a humanoid robot to help care for their elderly. For further information, check out this Reuters article. And to see ASIMO in action, check out this video.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the ‘over 65 year-old’ population will double between 2010 and 2030. Even more significant, those that are over 85 years old will double by the year 2025 and will increase 5-fold by 2050. This graying of America brings more chronic illness, more complicated multi-system conditions, more long-term care needs and enormous challenges to an already over-taxed healthcare system.

Meanwhile, half of America’s Primary Care Doctors “plan to either cut back on patients that they see or quit medicine entirely,” (according to a recent survey published by the Physician’s Foundation).

“More than 90 percent said the time they devote to non-clinical paperwork has increased in the last three years and 63 percent said this has caused them to spend less time with each patient” . . . a topic that I have been blogging about as well.

One respondent was quoted as saying, “the survey adds to building evidence that not enough internal medicine or family practice doctors are trained or practicing in the United States.”

This past September, Reuters published an article on the projected critical shortage of internal medicine specialists and primary care MDs. Survey results indicate that “only 23 percent of U.S. medical students plan to practice internal medicine and just 2 percent intend to become general practitioners.”

“The students complained that internal medicine required more paperwork, a greater breadth of knowledge and would pay less than more lucrative specialties.”

The projections for nursing are no less grim.

-- According to the AACN, in a July 2002 report, thirty states were already experiencing a nursing shortage and this is expected to increase to 44 states by 2020.

-- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, one million new and replacement nurses will be needed by 2012.

-- According to the American Hospital Association, 75% of all hospital vacancies are for nurses.

-- According to the National Council of State Boards of Nursing, the number of those becoming nurses has declined dramatically.

By the year 2010 (almost here), 40% of nurses will be over the age of 50. If we make it that long, almost half of us will be retiring in 15-20 years, just about the time when America’s ‘over 65’ population will double.

If we don’t reverse the trend of a dwindling healthcare workforce against a growing patient population, we may need to join Japan in creating a line of robotic healthcare workers . . . for who will care for the affirmed elderly when the doctors and nurses are no longer there.